We research complex systems others find too difficult to model, and build on what we find.
The lab's first technology
A market thermometer, not an oracle.
It measures the structural tension currently accumulated in the S&P 500 on a fixed scale from 0 to 100.
Current conditions only. No forecasts or probabilities.
Market stress scale · 0-100
Across 17 high-tension episodes, the median duration was 13 months. Half lasted between 11 and 26 months.
Latest published reading: August 2026 · normal
Our research does not follow a fixed roadmap. We follow the problem wherever it leads, and we are honest when we do not have the answer yet.
We begin with questions worth investigating, not predetermined answers.
Each problem determines which approaches are worth testing, rather than a preferred toolkit.
An idea may survive testing, change direction or stop there. Every outcome informs what happens next.
What proves useful moves forward. Findings are published with their evidence and limitations.
What we tested and what we found. Every entry states its evidence and limits.
Over 24,772 daily sessions since 1927, the Market Stress Index reads 22.5 points higher during decline phases, on the segment it was never calibrated on.
Read the findingThe standard failure is not poor implementation but the founding assumption. Models built on Gaussian returns treat the events they exist to handle as effectively impossible.
Read the findingExplore the technology emerging from our work, or start a conversation about where it could be useful.